کنفرانس مهندسی برق ایران

صفحه اصلی / بیست و نهمین کنفرانس مهندسی برق ایران

A Novel Model for Backcasting the Environmental Sustainability in Iran’s Electricity Supply Mix

نویسندگان :

Mohammad Saeid Atabaki¹ Mohammad Mohammadi²

1- Kharazmi University 2- دانشگاه خوارزمی

کلمات کلیدی :

backcasting, environmental sustainability, electricity generation, genetic algorithm

چکیده :

Electricity supply planning is a complex problem, especially in the era of day-to-day development in power generation technologies that each of which has its own specific technical and economic characteristics. Taking environmental aspects into consideration makes the problem even more complicated. Therefore, developing new efficient approaches to deal with this problem is of crucial importance. This paper proposes a model for backcasting the environmental sustainability in the power supply mix. The suggested model combines a genetic algorithm, a linear programming model, and an AHP-TOPSIS method. The model is used to analyze Iran's power sector. The results show that solar PV and wind turbine are two promising technologies for Iran's long-term power supply. The results also indicate that the environmentally sustainable plan would give rise to a reduction of per unit CO2 and SO2 emissions, as well as water consumption, but it would cause an increase in land use. The findings indicate that to keep CO2 emissions decreasing trend in the long-run, it is essential to expand the potential capacity of renewables, and also to devise efficient plans to reduce the demand.