کنفرانس مهندسی برق ایران

صفحه اصلی / سی امین کنفرانس بین المللی مهندسی برق

Transmission Dynamics and Optimal Control Strategy to Mitigate the Spread of Novel Coronavirus: The Case of Iran

نویسندگان :

Reza Shadi¹ Ahmad Fakharian² Hamid Khaloozadeh³

1- دانشگاه آزاد قزوین 2- دانشگاه آزاد قزوین 3- دانشگاه صنعتی خواجه نصیرالدین طوسی

کلمات کلیدی :

Mathematical modelling،Epidemiology،Optimal control،Vaccination،Data fitting

چکیده :

The outbreak of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) is currently considered a major threat to the health of human society. In this study, since the COVID-19 vaccines are currently being developed, a vaccine allocation as an effective pharmaceutical strategy to immunize people against disease is being considered. To this end, a new extended SIR-type model including vaccination compartment and reinfection transmission to predict disease behavior in Iran has been formulated. The mathematical analysis of the model is investigated to verify that the proposed model is well-posed epidemiologically. The parameters of the model are estimated via a nonlinear leastsquare fitting approach. Finally, to investigate the impact of preventive pharmaceutical measures on flattening the curve of the COVID-19 incidence in Iran, the optimal control strategy is applied. The results of numerical simulations and the optimal control analysis illustrate that the combined implementation of time-dependent measures has a significant effect on reducing the burden of disease.